CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-01-16T20:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-01-16T20:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18867/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with a C2.6 flare from active region 12929 (N08W30). The eruption is characterized by opening field lines and dimming best seen in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2022-01-16T19:20Z. The eruption is also visible in the northwest in STEREO A EUVI 195 with the same source signatures. UPDATE: This arrival signature exhibits an increase B-tot from 5 to 9nT with a coinciding increase in density. A subsequent rotation can be seen in the B-field components corresponding with a decrease in temperature that is indicative of a flux rope passage.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-01-18T23:04Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-20T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18879/1 Model Inputs: 2022-01-16T20:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=30.0, Lat.=12.0, Speed=610.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2022-01-17T02:12Z 2022-01-17T14:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=56.0, Lat.=28.0, Speed=451.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2022-01-17T23:11Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-01-20T00:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=2 (kp)180=3 Other Location(s) Impact: STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-01-19T14:59Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220117_021400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 5.05 hour(s)
Difference: -24.93 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2022-01-18T18:01Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy